Bear market recovery calculator
After a heavy market fall, two questions matter: when will the portfolio be back to its old value, and what can you do to get there sooner? Enter the portfolio value, the size of the fall, your stock share, the rebound and long-term return you expect and your monthly contributions, and the calculator charts the path back. It also shows the cost of selling at the low and waiting before buying in again.
The way back up
Portfolio value month by month from the low point. The dashed line marks your previous high.
Recovery times for other falls
Years to regain your old high at your rebound, return and contributions, if the market had dropped by a different amount.
| Market drop | Your portfolio falls | Years, staying invested | Years, no contributions | Years, if you sold |
|---|
How the recovery is modelled
The model begins at the low point and steps forward a month at a time. Returns compound monthly, contributions are added each month and the target is the previous high.
The first year uses your rebound figure and the years after it your long-term return. Both are assumptions, not predictions.
Your share of the fall
Only the stock part of the portfolio drops with the market.
your fall = market drop × stock share
Monthly growth rate
Yearly figures are converted into monthly compounding rates.
monthly = (1 + annual rate)1/12 − 1
Staying invested
Every month the balance grows and the contribution is added.
balance = balance × (1 + monthly) + contribution
Selling and waiting
The balance earns cash interest while you wait, then tracks the market after missing the start of the rebound.
Month of recovery
The first month the balance is back at or above its value before the fall.
balance ≥ portfolio before the fall
Bear market recovery FAQ
How long do markets take to recover from a bear market?
It varies a great deal. Some broad market falls have been made back in months, others took several years, especially when the drop was deep and the rebound slow. Because no one knows which is coming, the calculator lets you try different rebound and return figures.
Why does my portfolio drop less than the market?
Only the share invested in stocks follows the market down; bonds and cash usually fall less or not at all. The fall is applied to your stock share alone, which is why a 60/40 portfolio loses less than an all-stock one.
Does investing every month really make a difference?
A big one. Money added in a downturn buys at lower prices, and those purchases gain most when prices recover. Contributions also lift your balance back over its old high sooner, sometimes before the market itself has recovered.
What if I sell now and wait for calmer markets?
You will usually miss the strongest part of the recovery, since some of the best months for stocks have come right after the worst. The calculator compares staying in with selling at the low and buying back later, so you can see what waiting costs.
What return should I assume after the low?
Nobody knows. The calculator splits a first-year rebound from the long-term return that follows, because recoveries often start quickly and then settle. Try one cautious and one hopeful set of numbers to see the range.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is a planning tool for thinking through scenarios. Markets can fall further and recover more slowly than any figure you enter.