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Win rate and risk reward calculator

Win rate and reward to risk are two halves of one answer: the first says how often you are right, the second how much being right pays. Enter both, plus your risk per trade and how many trades you take, and you get your expectancy, the monthly return it implies and how far each number is from break-even. The grid below covers every pairing, so you can see which balance your style of trading needs.

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Expectancy by reward to risk, at your win rate

Win rate fixed, winner size changing. Each bar is expectancy in R; losing combinations show as an empty bar.

The expectancy grid

Expectancy in R for every pairing of win rate and reward to risk. Red cells lose money, and your own pairing is highlighted.

How the two numbers work together

Everything is counted in R, the amount risked on a single trade. A winner pays your reward-to-risk ratio in R and a loser costs 1R.

  1. Expectancy

    The average outcome of one trade.

    expectancy = win rate × ratio − (1 − win rate)

  2. Result for the month

    Expectancy times the number of trades, then times your risk per trade to get a percentage.

    monthly return ≈ expectancy × trades × risk %

  3. Break-even win rate

    The win rate at which your ratio produces zero expectancy.

    break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + ratio)

  4. Break-even ratio

    The ratio at which your win rate produces zero expectancy.

    break-even ratio = (1 − win rate) ÷ win rate

Win rate and reward to risk FAQ

How do win rate and reward to risk fit together?

Every trading result rests on two things: how often you win, and how big wins are compared with losses. A low win rate can still pay with large winners, while a high win rate can lose if the losers are big. The grid shows every pairing at once.

What win rate does a 1:2 reward to risk need?

Just over one in three, about 33.3 percent. In general, break-even win rate is 1 divided by (1 plus the ratio), so 1:1 needs over 50 percent and 1:3 needs over 25 percent.

What reward to risk do I need with a 40 percent win rate?

At least 1:1.5 to break even, because the wins on 40 percent of trades have to pay for losses on the other 60 percent. The sum is losing share over winning share: 0.6 divided by 0.4.

What does expectancy in R mean?

The average result per trade, in units of what you risk. An expectancy of 0.3R means each trade earns, on average, 30 percent of the amount risked. Multiply by risk per trade and by trade count to estimate a month.

Is it easier to raise win rate or reward to risk?

It depends on your style. Sharper entries and filters tend to lift win rate, while letting winners run and cutting losers fast lifts the ratio. Gaining one usually costs some of the other, so watch expectancy rather than either number on its own.

Are fees and slippage included?

No. If costs are significant, enter your ratio after them, for example by using the average real win and loss from your trade log instead of planned targets.

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