Trading dice roll simulator
Give two traders the identical strategy and they can still finish the year far apart, just because their wins and losses arrived in a different order. Set your win rate, reward to risk, risk per trade and number of trades, and the simulator rolls the dice for a thousand traders using those numbers. The chart and tables reveal the spread of outcomes, the drawdowns and losing runs to expect, and your odds of hitting the ruin level.
Twenty traders, one system
Twenty of the simulated equity curves, with the median of all thousand drawn in bold. Each line has the same edge; only the sequence of wins and losses changes.
What risk per trade does to the outcome
Identical system and dice rolls, different risk per trade. More risk lifts the best results but makes ruin much more likely.
| Risk per trade | Median ending | In profit | Hit ruin level | Typical worst drawdown |
|---|
How the simulation works
Every simulated trader begins with your balance and takes your number of trades. Each trade is a random roll weighted by your win rate, and risk is a fixed percentage of the current balance, so trades shrink after losses and grow after wins.
Roll for a trade
A random number under your win rate counts as a win.
win if random < win rate
Apply the outcome
A win adds your risk times your reward to risk; a loss removes your risk.
balance × (1 + risk × ratio) or balance × (1 − risk)
Record the damage
Each path notes its deepest fall from a peak, its longest losing run and whether it ever dropped to the ruin level.
ruin if balance ≤ start × (1 − ruin level)
Do it 1,000 times
Sorting the results gives the median plus the top and bottom 5 percent.
Dice roll simulator FAQ
What does this simulator actually show?
It replays your trading system many times with random luck, as if rolling a die for each trade with your win rate setting the odds. Every path has the same edge, yet they finish in very different places. That spread is pure luck at work on a trader with your numbers.
Why do traders with the same edge end up so differently?
Because the order of wins and losses is random. One trader runs into an early losing streak and cuts size or gives up; another opens with a winning run and grows in confidence. Over enough trades the edge shows, but over 50 or 100 trades luck can dominate.
What is risk of ruin?
The chance your account drops to a level you count as game over, such as half its starting value. It depends heavily on risk per trade, and the table shows how fast it climbs as each trade risks more.
How long a losing run should I prepare for?
Longer than most people guess. At a 50 percent win rate, six to eight losses in a row are normal over a few hundred trades. The simulator reports the typical longest run so you can size trades to survive it.
What is the seed number for?
It fixes the random rolls, so the same settings and seed always give the same paths and a result can be shared. Press roll again, or change the seed, for a fresh set of outcomes.
Does a positive edge guarantee a profit?
Over a very large number of trades it makes profit very likely, but never certain over a particular stretch. The simulator shows how many paths are still losing after your chosen number of trades, despite a positive expectancy.