Trade expectancy calculator
One number decides whether a trading method makes money in the long run: its expectancy, the average result of a single trade once wins, losses and fees are all counted. Enter win rate, average win, average loss, fees and how often you trade, and you get expectancy in dollars and in R, your profit factor and the expected monthly result. Each input is then nudged in turn, so you can see which improvement pays best.
A month of trades, before and after costs
Expected gross winnings, gross losses and fees over one month at your trading pace.
Where an improvement pays most
Your expectancy with a single realistic tweak applied each time. Compare the extra monthly profit to choose what to work on.
| Change | Expectancy per trade | Per month | Extra per month |
|---|
How expectancy is calculated
Each outcome is weighted by how often it happens. Fees are paid on every trade, winner or loser.
Expectancy
Average win times win rate, less average loss times loss rate, less fees.
E = win rate × avg win − (1 − win rate) × avg loss − fees
Expectancy in R
Expectancy divided by your normal risk per trade.
E in R = E ÷ 1R
Profit factor
Gross profit over gross loss, both after fees.
PF = (win rate × (avg win − fees)) ÷ ((1 − win rate) × (avg loss + fees))
Month's result
Expectancy multiplied by trades per month.
monthly = E × trades
Break-even win rate
The win rate where expectancy reaches zero, with fees counted.
break-even = (avg loss + fees) ÷ (avg win + avg loss)
Trading expectancy FAQ
What does trade expectancy mean?
It is the average you make or lose per trade across many trades, combining how often you win with how much you win and lose. Positive expectancy means the method makes money over time; negative means it loses, no matter how good single trades feel.
How do I calculate expectancy?
Win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss, minus fees per trade. With a 40 percent win rate, a $500 average win, a $250 average loss and $5 fees: 0.4 times 500, minus 0.6 times 250, minus 5, which is $45 per trade.
What is profit factor?
Gross profit divided by gross loss. Anything above 1 means you make more than you lose. Many traders see 1.5 and up as solid and over 2 as very strong, though very high figures from a short record are often luck.
Why express expectancy in R?
R is the amount you usually risk per trade. Using R lets you compare periods when you traded different sizes, and multiplying by your risk per trade converts it into a return on the account.
How many trades does a reliable expectancy need?
At least 30, and ideally 100 or more of the same setup. A few big winners can make a short record look far better than the method is. Keep logging and recalculate monthly.
How much do fees change expectancy?
One for one. Commission, spread and slippage are paid on each trade, so every dollar of them comes straight off the result. For active traders with small average wins, costs can turn a winning method into a losing one, which is why they have their own input here.