Prop firm challenge calculator
Every prop firm challenge is a race between the profit target and the drawdown limits, and your trade size largely decides which finish line you reach first. Enter the challenge rules, your win rate, reward to risk, risk per trade and trading frequency, and the calculator runs thousands of simulated attempts to estimate your pass rate and how failures happen. It then sets that chance against the fee and the likely earnings of a funded account.
How the simulated attempts finished
The outcome of 3,000 simulated challenges using your settings.
Pass rate at other risk levels
Same rules and same edge at different trade sizes. Too small and time runs out; too large and the drawdown limit catches you.
| Risk per trade | Pass rate | Fail on drawdown | Run out of time | Expected value |
|---|
How the challenge is simulated
Every attempt is played out one trade at a time. A win adds your risk multiplied by your reward to risk, and a loss removes your risk. An attempt stops when it reaches the target, breaches a drawdown limit or runs out of days.
A fixed random seed is used, so identical settings always give identical results and a shared link shows the same numbers.
A single trade
It wins at your win rate and loses otherwise.
win: + risk × reward to risk, loss: − risk
Check the limits
After every trade the balance is tested against the static maximum drawdown, and the day's loss against the daily limit.
fail if balance ≤ −max drawdown or day ≤ −daily limit
Check the target
Reaching the profit target passes the attempt.
pass if balance ≥ target
Repeat
3,000 attempts produce the pass rate and the split of failure reasons.
pass rate = passes ÷ 3,000
Expected value
Funded profit per month at your edge, times your split and the months you expect to keep the account, times the pass rate, less the fee.
EV = pass rate × funded payout × months − fee
Prop firm challenge FAQ
What are my odds of passing a prop firm challenge?
They depend on your edge and how you size trades against the rules. A trader with a small positive edge risking 0.5 to 1 percent per trade often has a fair chance, while the same trader risking 3 percent usually hits the drawdown first. The simulation puts a number on it.
Why does a bigger risk per trade lower the pass rate?
Larger trades reach the target in fewer wins but also reach the drawdown limit in fewer losses, and losses tend to bunch together. Beyond a certain size, the drawdown side wins. The table shows your pass rate at several risk levels so you can find the best one.
Is a challenge fee worth paying on average?
Your chance of passing times what a funded account is likely to pay, minus the fee. A 30 percent chance of passing an account worth $1,500 to you on average is worth $450, so with a $500 fee each attempt loses $50 on average.
How does the simulation work?
Each attempt plays trades one after another using your win rate and reward to risk, stopping when the balance reaches the target, breaks the maximum drawdown or daily loss limit, or runs out of days. Thousands of repeats give the odds.
Is trailing drawdown modelled?
This calculator uses a static maximum drawdown from the starting balance plus a daily loss limit. Trailing drawdowns are tougher, and our prop firm drawdown calculator shows how each type moves the breach level.
Can I rely on these results?
Not as a guarantee. They assume every trade is independent and that your win rate and reward to risk survive the pressure of an evaluation. Discipline, news events and slippage also affect real results.